Wednesday, July 17, 2013

LANL-UNIVERSITY OF NEW MEXICO STUDIES INDICATE COMING FOREST MORTALITIES

Forest Death.  Credit:  Leigh Brandt
Rising Global Temperatures Accelerate Drought-induced Forest Mortality
Research has dire global implications for forests

LOS ALAMOS, N.M., July 10, 2013—Many southwestern forests in the United States will disappear or be heavily altered by 2050, according to a series of joint Los Alamos National Laboratory-University of New Mexico studies.

In a new video produced by Los Alamos, Nathan McDowell, a Los Alamos plant physiologist, and William Pockman, a UNM biology professor, explain that their research, and more from scientists around the world, is forecasting that by 2100 most conifer forests should be heavily disturbed, if not gone, as air temperatures rise in combination with drought.

“Everybody knows trees die when there's a drought, if there's bark beetles or fire, yet nobody in the world can predict it with much accuracy.” McDowell said. “What's really changed is that the temperature is going up,” thus the researchers are imposing artificial drought conditions on segments of wild forest in the Southwest and pushing forests to their limit to discover the exact processes of mortality and survival.

Wild forest analysis more effective than greenhouses
The study is centered on drought experiments in woodlands at both Los Alamos and the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge in central New Mexico. Both sites are testing hypotheses about how forests die on mature, wild trees, rather than seedlings in a greenhouse, through the ecosystem-scale removal of 50 percent of yearly precipitation through large water-diversion trough systems.

At the Sevilleta, additional plots are irrigated to examine how wet climate cycles may make forests more vulnerable to subsequent droughts, whilst at Los Alamos, both droughted and ambient precipitation piñon and juniper trees are also heated in Plexiglas chambers to mimic an environment that's 5 degrees Celsius warmer than today.

“Because we're not working in a greenhouse with plants in pots, but we're working with plants that grew on a natural landscape and we're working over a long period of time. . . our field manipulations provide great power to understand what actually happens to real plants,” said Pockman.

Starving trees for essential data
Scientists take data to test hypotheses regarding plant starvation, dehydration and vulnerability to insect attack during severe drought, including measurements of carbon dioxide transfer in the leaves and carbohydrate content of the plants.

“The Sevilleta site is part of a network of sites funded by the National Science Foundation Long-term ecological Research Program,” said Pockman. “It's intended to provide a source of data that spans long time periods, which is essentially the time scale over which ecological processes occur.”

The research project at the Sevilleta now has eight years worth of data on drought and tree death.

Rainfall is not always the answer
“The irrigation has revealed that trees can do really well when it rains a lot, and obviously that's not a huge surprise,” said McDowell. “But they may also be more vulnerable to a subsequent drought. So climate predictions suggest that with more droughts, we should also have more heavy rainfall periods.

Those things may actually set up these trees for failure during the next drought.”
Bad news for the piñon pines, especially, which tend to give up completely when the hot, dry air pulls essential moisture from their needles. The junipers, standing nearby, lose a branch at a time to the heat and moisture stress treatment, but perish more slowly than the piñon neighbors.

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Press Briefing | The White House

Press Briefing | The White House

Red Arrow aims for tactical excellence

Red Arrow aims for tactical excellence

Sobrevolando un cañón en Marte

Sobrevolando un cañón en Marte

EPA OFFERS $15 MILLION IN SUPPLEMENTAL FUNDS TO CLEAN UP CONTAMINATED BROWNFIELDS

FROM:  U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY 
EPA Announces $15 Million in Supplemental Funds to Clean up and Redevelop Contaminated Brownfields Sites Across the Country 

WASHINGTON – Today the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced approximately $15 million in supplemental funding to help clean up contaminated Brownfields properties. The Revolving Loan Funding (RLF) will help 41 communities carry out cleanup and redevelopment projects. These projects will help communities create jobs while protecting people’s health and the environment.

“These funds – granted to communities who have already achieved success in their work to clean up and redevelop brownfields – will help boost local economies, create local jobs and protect people from harmful pollution by expediting Brownfield projects,” said Mathy Stanislaus, assistant administrator for EPA’s Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response. “The RLF supplemental recipients are some of the nation’s top performers. Collectively, these communities have already leveraged more than $2.5 billion in clean up and redevelopment investment – the RLF funding announced today will help sustain that incredible progress.”

Revolving loan funds specifically supply funding for grant recipients to provide loans and sub-grants to carry out cleanup activities at brownfield sites. When these loans are repaid, the loan amount is then returned to the fund and subgranted or re-loaned to other borrowers, providing an ongoing source of capital within a community for additional cleanup of brownfield sites. The supplemental grants range in funding from about $200,000 to $400,000 with an average grant award of $300,000.

This year’s supplemental funds will support an array of cleanup and redevelopment projects across the country. For example:

The City of Brea, Calif., will use its supplemental funding to clean sections of a former rail line, which will be reused as a rails-to-trails project for alternative transportation and recreation options.
Cleanup of a downtown property in Great Falls, Mont., will allow Easter Seals Good Will to move forward with a $2.5 million redevelopment, which will create numerous construction and permanent jobs.
A loan from the Indiana Finance Authority will go toward cleanup of the former Carpenter Manufacturing site, which will be redeveloped into a business park redevelopment creating approximately 100 jobs.
The Land-of-Sky Regional Council will use the additional funding for cleanup at the former Chatham Mill in Salem, N.C. Once cleaned, developers plan to rehabilitate the 300,000 square foot structure into approximately 150 multifamily rental units.
In Nassau County, N.Y., funds will be used to address the last un-remediated parcel of Glen Cove’s 52 acre waterfront redevelopment area.

There are an estimated 450,000 abandoned and contaminated sites in the United States. EPA’s Brownfields program targets these sites to encourage redevelopment, and help to provide the opportunity for productive community use of contaminated properties. EPA’s Brownfields investments overall have leveraged more than $20 billion in cleanup and redevelopment funding from public and private sources and on average, $17.79 is leveraged for every EPA Brownfields grant dollar spent.

The funds have enabled the support of 90,000 jobs in cleanup, construction and redevelopment.


DVIDS - Video - SECDEF Hagel at Fort Bragg

DVIDS - Video - SECDEF Hagel at Fort Bragg

LANL HONORED FOR INNOVATION AND UTILITY

FROM:  LOS ALAMOS NATIONAL LABORATORY
X-Ray Imaging, Spacecraft Nuclear Fission and Cosmic Ray Contraband Detection Score R&D 100 Awards

Los Alamos and partner technologies honored for innovation and utility

LOS ALAMOS, N.M., July 8, 2013—R&D Magazine today announced the winners of its annual “R&D 100” competition, commonly known as the “Oscars of Innovation,” and three technologies from Los Alamos National Laboratory and its partners are among the honorees.

“The innovation and creativity shown in this year’s awards is truly inspiring. It gives me great confidence in the Laboratory’s intellectual vitality and ongoing role in national security science. Congratulations to our researchers and their partners,” said Los Alamos National Laboratory Director Charles McMillan.

A Digital X-ray Imager for Field Use

 MiniMAX is a battery powered, digital x-ray imaging system that is completely self-contained, lightweight, compact and portable. Its applications include homeland security (postal inspection of suspicious packages and explosive ordnance disposal), nondestructive testing, weld inspection, disaster relief (to triage broken bones and confirm dental X-rays) and for field and veterinary medicine. (Joint entry with Los Alamos, Leica Camera AG, JDS Uniphase and JENOPTIK Optical Systems LLC.)
Nuclear Fission for Spacecraft

KiloPower uses a nuclear fission system as a heat source that transfers heat via a heat pipe to a small Stirling-engine-based power convertor to produce electricity from uranium. With KiloPower, it is possible for NASA and other government and industrial organizations to continue developing probes and spacecraft for the exploration of deep space. (Joint entry with Los Alamos, NASA Glenn Research Center and National Security Technologies, LLC.)
Cosmic Ray Muons for Contraband Detection

Multi-Mode Passive Detection System (MMPDS) is a scanning device using muon particles from cosmic rays for quickly detecting unshielded to heavily shielded nuclear and radiological threats as well as explosives and other contraband. (Joint entry with Los Alamos and Decision Sciences International Corporation.)
But wait, there’s more. . .

Los Alamos was also a joint winner with Sandia National Laboratories, which led the work, on

Mantevo Suite 1.0: This suite of software prototypes or small sections of code allows computational scientists to measure the performance of new computing environments and helps in the design of future computing applications. (Joint entry with Sandia, Los Alamos and Lawrence Livermore national laboratories, the United Kingdom-based Atomic Weapons Establishment and Santa Clara-based NVIDIA Corp.)
A History of Success

Since 1978 when it first competed, Los Alamos has won 129 of the prestigious R&D100 awards that celebrate the top 100 proven technological advances of the year as judged by R&D Magazine. These technologies include innovative new materials, chemistry breakthroughs, biomedical products, consumer items, testing equipment, and high-energy physics.

In the years since 1995, winning innovations have returned more than $45 million in funding to Los Alamos in the form of Cooperative Research and Development Agreements, Work for Others, User Facility Agreements and licenses. An estimated 80 patent awards have been associated with winners with many more patents pending. Some 25 percent of LANL's commercial licenses and 35 percent of noncommercial licenses can be attributed to R&D 100 winners.

MiniMAX_With_Carbon#66DDD1D.jpg
KILOnotextSM[2].jpg
multi-mode passive #66DDCF3.jpg
About Los Alamos National Laboratory

Los Alamos National Laboratory, a multidisciplinary research institution engaged in strategic science on behalf of national security, is operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC, a team composed of Bechtel National, the University of California, The Babcock & Wilcox Company, and URS Corporation for the Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration.

Los Alamos enhances national security by ensuring the safety and reliability of the U.S. nuclear stockpile, developing technologies to reduce threats from weapons of mass destruction, and solving problems related to energy, environment, infrastructure, health, and global security concerns.

Monday, July 15, 2013

Press Briefing | The White House

Press Briefing | The White House

Latest EBRD innovation in RUB swap market to extend yield curve [EBRD - News and events]

Latest EBRD innovation in RUB swap market to extend yield curve [EBRD - News and events]

Improving Rijeka’s water services [EBRD - News and events]

Improving Rijeka’s water services [EBRD - News and events]

Wisconsin Guard unit returns after engineering successful Afghanistan deployment

Wisconsin Guard unit returns after engineering successful Afghanistan deployment

Liftoff ATV-4 / Highlights / Photos / For Media / ESA

Liftoff ATV-4 / Highlights / Photos / For Media / ESA

U.S. MILITARY STOPS MOVES IN EGYPT

FROM:  U.S. AIR FORCE 
Principal military official stops moves to Egypt
by Staff Sgt. Ian Hoachlander
Air Force Personnel Center Public Affairs

7/10/2013 - JOINT BASE SAN ANTONIO-RANDOLPH, Texas (AFNS) -- Military officials have temporarily halted movement of personnel, to include permanent change of station moves and most temporary duty assignments to Egypt, due to the State Department's ordered departure of all dependents and nonmission essential personnel from Egypt.

The stop movement order, initiated by the principal military official at the American Embassy in Cairo, is in effect until further notice and will be updated as the situation dictates.

"The order affects both military and civilian Air Force members, who are required to proceed to Egypt," said Ron Gallucci, from the AFPC assignment programs and procedures branch. "However, active-duty members with a permanent change of station date in July and August are affected and they need to know what the restrictions are."

Stateside-based Airmen projected to move to Egypt, and those who have out-processed but have not departed from their current duty station must not depart or proceed. Airmen stationed overseas who have a projected assignment to Egypt and a July or August return from overseas date who have not yet departed the overseas area must consult with their current base personnel section.

Members who do not intend to take leave enroute and who have not yet signed out their unit will not be allowed to proceed until further guidance is provided. Voluntary return from overseas extension requests will be considered, and some affected Airmen may be authorized additional temporary lodging allowance.

Airmen stationed in Egypt who departed their base on leave or temporary duty are authorized to return with the approval of their commander. The home station force support squadron must communicate to commanders their responsibility to account for Airmen in temporary duty status and make a determination on proceeding back to home station.

Air Force civilian employees are also affected by the stop movement, said Christine Armstrong, from the AFPC Civilian Force Integration Directorate.


SON TAY RAID REMEMBERED WITH DISPLAY AT CANNON


Spectators gather near the Combat Talon I, Cherry One, during a ceremony officially welcoming the retired aircraft to its new home by the front gate of Cannon Air Force Base, N.M., June 28, 2013. The Talon flew point in the largest covert operation of the Vietnam War, the Son Tay Raid, to rescue Prisoners of War. (U.S. Air Force photo/Senior Airman Jette Carr)
 FROM:  U.S. AIR FORCE
Son Tay Raid aircraft displayed at Cannon
By Senior Airman Jette Carr
27th Special Operations Wing Public Affairs

7/2/2013 - CANNON AIR FORCE BASE, N.M. -- The 27th Special Operations Wing held a ceremony to celebrate the official new home of Combat Talon I, Cherry One, near the front entrance of Cannon Air Force Base, N.M., June 28, 2013.

If the retired aircraft could speak, it would undoubtedly have many hair-raising and death-defying exploits to share. Perhaps, though, the most intimidating story it could tell is that of the Son Tay Raid, the moment this particular Talon cemented its mark in time during a Prisoner of War rescue mission in the Vietnam War.

The notorious MC-130E was given a voice during the Cannon ceremony by way of several original crew members who flew the craft during the famous raid. Together, the veterans reminisced, chiming in with details and reminding each other of the moment they leapt into the history books.

Retired Lt. Col. Irl "Leon" Franklin, the Talon's pilot, recalled the day he was recruited to play a part in the Son Tay Raid.

"We got word from Headquarters [U.S. Air Force] to provide a crew for an unknown, classified mission," said Franklin. "They expressed my name specifically, and that of another fellow, a navigator, by the name of Tom Stiles. The rest of the crew was to be chosen from the 7th Special Operations Squadron."

It was a joint-service operation of the utmost secrecy -- formulated like a puzzle. Only those with a need-to-know were told how the pieces fit together, leaving most participants in the dark. Each group, from the flight crews to the army rangers, practiced specific combat maneuvers, all the while speculating what their mission would be.

According to the National Museum of the United States Air Force, an assortment of aircraft trained for the operation, including six helicopters, five small attack planes and two large support aircraft. All unknowingly prepared for a raid on a POW camp in North Vietnam, where intelligence analysts believed 55 prisoners were being held.

Eventually, the mission was briefed to all and they flew what was to become the largest covert operation of the Vietnam War on the night of Nov. 20, 1970.

Flying point under the call sign Cherry One was the faithful Talon 0523, prepared to lead a team of helicopters in close formation. However, as it would happen, all was not smooth sailing for the military bird as the mission started off with what the craft's copilot, retired Maj. William Guenon, called a "Murphy" moment.

"In any good, secret and dangerous mission deep behind enemy lines, there's usually a few surprise 'Murphy' moments to be dealt with along the way, and this will always be the case no matter how much development and training is done," Guenon said. "Our mission was no exception. After having flown Cherry One for more than four months with absolutely no serious issues, on the night of the raid, her number three engine would not start. We lost 21 minutes before we finally, using the double-starter-button-trick, got number three to start."

Once airborne, the crew modified their route to make up for lost time and caught up to the already in-flight formation. Upon reaching their destination, the Talon crew began to drop flares on the sleeping prison camp below, lighting up the area for other aircraft that destroyed Son Tay's defenses and landed inside the fortifications to begin the raid.

Cherry One then flew up the road away from camp and dropped fire crackers to simulate a ground fire-fight in an effort to deter North Vietnamese reinforcements. Finally, Cherry One was to drop a couple napalm bombs, which would burn bright and serve as a reference point for five A-1E Skyraiders and Cherry Two, another Combat Talon I. The first bomb went out on point, but it was the second that gave the crew of aircraft 0523 a bit of a problem.

"Another anxious moment that will always remain with the crew of Cherry One was when our second napalm bomb was armed, got hung up during airdrop and would not leave the aircraft," said Guenon. "You can believe we all had our individual visions of what nasty things could happen, and you can be sure none of these thoughts were very pretty. That derelict napalm was finally jettisoned by using negative G's and an old-fashion, and properly timed, heave-ho by our highly motivated ramp crew."

Though they were prepared for nearly every kind of hiccup in the mission, there was one moment that no one saw coming. During the raid a message came over the radio that simply stated, "No packages."

"When they said negative packages, I never knew what that meant," said Tom Eckhart, head navigator on Cherry One. "I said, 'What's that'; and they said, 'No prisoners.' That was quite a letdown because that was our purpose, but later on I found out it was worthwhile because I got to speak with several people who were prisoners in Vietnam and each one told me that I saved their lives. That made it all worthwhile."

"They were told over and over again, 'Nobody will come and get you; they don't care about you; they have forgotten about you, and you're here forever'," said Eckhart. "After the Son Tay Raid, they [the POWs] found out that we did come for them."

Because of the raid on Son Tay, North Vietnam gathered all POWs together in one location, fearful of a repeat attack. It gave men who had been in isolation for many years the ability to communicate with one another - they were no longer alone.

In Secret and Dangerous, a book by Guenon containing a first-hand account of the rescue operation, was a letter from a Vietnam POW, retired Brig. Gen. Jon Reynolds, who expressed the importance of the Son Tay Raid.

"While the rescue was not to be, the success of the mission and its importance for American prisoners in North Vietnam should never be understated," said Reynolds. "Its impact on us was positive and immediate...morale soared. The Vietnamese were visibly shaken. Even though not a man was rescued, the raid was still the best thing that ever happened to us."

After the mission was completed, the crew parted ways with their Talon, though they found they had become quite attached. At their craft's retirement, the Vietnam veterans were glad to see Cherry One, not in the bone-yard or buried in a museum, but prominently displayed at a special operations base.

"Our bird, Cherry One, aka 64-0523, is a larger than life C-130E(I) - one of the first, and has been operating in the shadows around the many hot spots of the world, she's always brought her aircrews safely home," said Guenon. "When not stemming the tide of communism, she, in the dark of night, quietly pursued those fanatics who still wanted to harm the U.S. Indeed, for a large-sized aircraft, this is certainly no small feat."

"By displaying a proven special operations legend at the Cannon Air Force Base front gate, aircrews can see and realize the true spirit and proud tradition of the Son Tay Raid from so long ago," Guenon continued. "Hopefully her example will influence others to succeed in spite of great odds."

LANL BEATS WASTE SHIPMENT GOAL

FROM:  LOS ALAMOS NATIONAL LABORATORY

Los Alamos Exceeds Waste Shipping Goal
Lab breaks another record with three months remaining in fiscal year

LOS ALAMOS, N.M., July 8, 2013—Los Alamos National Laboratory, which broke its waste shipping records in 2012, has exceeded last year’s record with three months left to go in fiscal year 2013. During the past nine months, Los Alamos shipped 1,074 cubic meters of transuranic (TRU) and mixed low-level waste to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant and other approved waste disposal facilities, exceeding last year’s record of 920 cubic meters.

“Los Alamos continues to exceed expectations dispositioning waste from Area G,” said Pete Maggiore, assistant manager for Environmental Operations at the Department of Energy’s Los Alamos Field Office. “The success of this campaign has been made possible through the efforts of many people, including our partners at the New Mexico Environment Department.”

The effort is part of an agreement between the New Mexico Environment Department and the Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration and Office of Environmental Management to remove 3,706 cubic meters of TRU waste stored aboveground at Area G, the Laboratory’s waste storage facility, by June 30, 2014. The accelerated removal campaign is in its second year, with a goal to remove 2,600 cubic meters of waste by September 30, 2013. Since the campaign began, Los Alamos has removed 1,994 cubic meters of waste.

“We’ve made significant progress removing waste stored above ground at Area G, and we made this progress while maintaining an excellent safety record,” said Jeff Mousseau, associate director of Environmental Programs at the Laboratory. “We are confident this trend will continue throughout the rest of the campaign.”

What is transuranic, or TRU, waste?

TRU waste consists of clothing, tools, rags, debris, soil and other items contaminated with radioactive material, mostly plutonium. Transuranic elements such as plutonium have an atomic number greater than uranium, so they are labeled transuranic, for “beyond uranium” on the periodic table of elements.

About 90 percent of the current TRU waste inventory is a result of decades of nuclear research and weapons production at the Laboratory and is often referred to as “legacy” waste.

Sunday, July 14, 2013

LANL News: Importance of science education to national security will be Los Alamos director's topic at TEDxABQ

LANL News: Importance of science education to national security will be Los Alamos director's topic at TEDxABQ

U.S. Navy Top Stories Update

U.S. Navy Top Stories Update

U.S. Department of Defense Armed with Science Update

U.S. Department of Defense Armed with Science Update

CHIEF OF NAVAL OPERATIONS SAYS FORCES RETURNING TO TRADITIONAL ROLES

FROM:  U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE 
Maritime Forces Returning to Traditional Roles, Greenert Says
By Claudette Roulo
American Forces Press Service

WASHINGTON, July 11, 2013 - The Navy and Marine Corps spent the last decade moving away from their traditional supporting/supported roles, "and it's time to come back," Navy Adm. Jonathan W. Greenert, the chief of naval operations, said today at a forum on the future of maritime forces.

For the Navy, Greenert said, that means maintaining a day-to-day presence where it matters, "and we've got to be there when it matters."

The admiral noted the speed with which naval forces were able to respond during the recent North Korean missile crisis.

"If we were not there, if we did not have ... a forward deployed naval force, we would not have been able to put in place the ballistic missile defense construct that we had in place in just about 72 hours," Greenert said.

Today, he said, the Navy has the Kearsarge Amphibious Readiness Group in place in the North Red Sea, off the coast of Egypt. They wouldn't be there if they hadn't already been forward-deployed, he added.

"We can't garrison and respond, because it will be too late," Greenert said.

In an era of shrinking budgets, the Navy has to make the most of what it has today, he said, and that means finding innovative ways to be forward. "We have a budget that has been sequestered, but the requirement [to respond] hasn't been sequestered," the admiral said.

Flexibility is the key to keeping costs down while maintaining a forward presence, he said. Through disaggregated operations, commanders have the ability to pull together ships and units to meet specific requirements, Greenert said, but the Navy's older inventory wasn't designed with this in mind.

The Navy has to build smarter, he said, and that means not constructing platforms that are so integrated and so complicated that they're only good for about a decade, instead of a more realistic 30-40 year lifespan.

"An alternative is distributed operations with tailored ships with tailored capabilities," the admiral said.

The Navy's newest vessels, including Littoral Combat Ships, Joint High Speed Vessels and Mobile Landing Platforms, will provide volume, speed and persistence, with modular, evolvable payloads, and at a lower cost than previous ship generations, Greenert said.

Construction is already underway on these ships, he said, and won't be affected by sequestration.

But, the admiral said, sequestration will mean fewer carrier strike groups and amphibious readiness groups available to surge to respond to crises. He likened the result to hollowing out a melon. At some point, Greenert said, the Navy will reach a point where it won't be able to support a surge.

The admiral acknowledged that after spending so long largely operating independently of each other, command and control between Navy and Marine Corps forces is still a challenge.

During Bold Alligator 2012, an annual fleet exercise, he said, "We found we needed a common way to plan and execute amphibious operations ... We need a better way to understand the ship-to-shore connectors."

However, exercises are intended to serve as learning experiences, Greenert said, and the Navy is now investing in portable mission planning and force-tracking capabilities to address this issue.

SENATE TOLD AFGHAN SECURITY FORCES ARE SUCCEEDING

FROM:  U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE 
Afghan Forces Achieving Security Success, Official Says
By Cheryl Pellerin
American Forces Press Service

WASHINGTON, July 11, 2013 - Afghan security forces are succeeding in the task of securing their people and their nation, and now the Afghan people are counting on coalition help to navigate the next transition, a senior defense official told a Senate panel today.

Dr. Peter R. Lavoy, acting assistant secretary of defense for Asian and Pacific security affairs, testified before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations about the envisaged situation in Afghanistan at the end of 2014, when the International Security Assistance Force will end its mission in the country.

"Afghanistan is going through a democratic transition that is unprecedented in that country," Lavoy told the panel, "... so the democratic impulse is very strong and we need to do everything we can to support it and provide the confidence that tomorrow will be better than today ... in Afghanistan."

Afghan President Hamid Karzai will not run in the April 2014 election, the assistant secretary said.

"The outcome of this election is not clear to anyone and we are doing ... everything we can to ensure a successful, fair, free and representative election, but there is uncertainty," he said.

Lavoy said the Afghan army and police have performed with remarkable success.

"Afghan forces now plan and conduct the overwhelming majority of combat operations and also are taking the vast majority of casualties," he said. "... Despite heavy fighting, the Afghans are holding the gains of recent years and the Taliban must come to grips with the fact that they cannot defeat the Afghan national security forces militarily."

The Afghans are encountering resistance and taking many casualties, Lavoy said -- up to 400 soldiers and police every month, he said.

"But they're standing up to that resistance. They are an increasingly professional force that is getting the job done and doing a better job each and every day," he added.

Yet, there are gaps in Afghan capabilities, he added. ISAF provides critical support and assistance, he said, but the largest gaps are at the ministerial level -- at the ministries of Defense and Interior that support the army and police.

"They need a human capital strategy," Lavoy said. "They need to manage contracts, payrolls, food, fuel, other logistics, planning, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, et cetera."

The United States is transitioning in Afghanistan, not leaving, the assistant secretary added.

"We are on track to bring the ISAF mission to a close by the end of 2014 and transition to Operation Resolute Support, a new train, advise and assist mission under a NATO umbrella," Lavoy said.

The United States also plans to conduct a narrowly focused counterterrorism mission, he said.

"The United States and Afghanistan are already negotiating a bilateral security agreement to provide the necessary framework to support the presence of U.S. forces to accomplish these missions," he said. "NATO is also preparing to negotiate such a framework with Afghanistan."

The United States has not decided on the size of the post-2014 military presence, Lavoy added, but the ultimate U.S. presence will be guided by several factors, including the following:

- Progress toward a core goal of defeating al-Qaida in the region;

- The potential for peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban;

- Continued progress with the Afghan national security forces;

- Afghanistan's political transition centered on the elections in April 2014;

- The regional setting; and

- Concluding the U.S.-Afghanistan bilateral security agreement in the NATO-Afghanistan Status of Forces Agreement.

"This is a critical time for our shared effort in Afghanistan," Lavoy said. "After more than a decade of war and tremendous sacrifices by the people of the United States, our coalition partners and Afghans, we can see the prospect for peace and stability in Afghanistan."

Strategically the mission is successful with the Afghan security forces in the lead, he added, but there are questions about the future.

"Whether you talk to Americans or especially to Afghans," Lavoy observed, "there will be questions and uncertainties about what happens in the future."

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