MATHEMATICS AND THE MODEL STRAWBERRY

FROM:  NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION 

Strawberries with a thirst

Mathematicians help California drought-weary berry growers address water issues

t's just not summer without a piece of strawberry shortcake. Pinches of sugar release a flood of fragrant juices that pinken clouds of whipped cream and salty sweet cake on a sweltering day for a refreshing dessert that says, "Yes, summer has arrived."

Just as representative of this season's delights are those joys we associate with water: sparkling swimming pools, cooling mists of summer hoses and the scent of warm pavement suddenly accosted by raindrops.

As much as these two images fit snugly in sentimental minds, they do not coexist in California's berry farmlands, which reportedly produce 80 percent of the nation's strawberries.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, "In 119 years of recorded history, 2013 was the driest calendar year for the state of California." To be sure, California, and specifically coastal Central California, is never overflowing with water in any year, but recent, yearly water-supply needs caused serious concern.

In January 2014, California's snowpack, which normally provides about one-third of the water used by California's cities and farms, was measured at 12 percent, the lowest for January in more than a half-century of record keeping. Governor Jerry Brown declared a drought emergency for the state, long before the "dry season," which usually occurs during the summer months.

Then, on April 1, the California Department of Water Resources measured water content of statewide snowpack at 32 percent of normal expectations for that time of year. California's water managers saw the result as truly foreboding since April typically is considered the snowpack's peak when snow and ice begin to melt into streams and reservoirs, and conditions were only expected to worsen.

Drought conditions like these, occurring annually, prompted policymakers, conservationists, geologists, hydrologists, farmers and business owners to creatively address the state's water problems. And, in an interesting turn, mathematicians factored into this mix with one of the most unique perspectives of all.

The berry business

John Eiskamp, owner and president of JE Farms describes the Pajaro Valley in Central Coastal California as the "berry capital of the world." Strawberries reign supreme, followed by raspberries and then blackberries, but ultimately, it's a berry world in his Santa Cruz County.

"This is an agricultural area," he said. "It's the driver of the economy. It provides the majority of the jobs. It provides the majority of the support industries that are here for agriculture--the companies that sell the product, the supplies, and the inputs that we growers use to produce the crops."

So, water shortage issues--even for berries that aren't the thirstiest crops by a long shot--still need water to produce saleable, harvestable fruit. According to Eiskamp, agriculture represents 85 percent of the valley's water usage, but because of that the growers know they must be good stewards of the limited water supply. Not surprisingly, they already have explored various crop rotation and water conservation strategies. However, this problem only worsens as each year passes. So, in 2011, a National Science Foundation-funded math institute, the American Institute of Mathematics (AIM) in Palo Alto, Calif., got involved in what they describe as an "optimization problem."

Math: It's not just for spreadsheets and bottomlines

One of eight NSF-funded math institutes, AIM brings 800 mathematicians from around the world to Palo Alto each year to study a "whole variety of programs," according to its deputy director Estelle Basor. Small research groups with "applied" objectives come for weeklong stints, modeling neural effects related to migraine headaches, more efficient medical imaging or, in this case, improved water use in drought-stricken areas. Additionally, the institute spends even more time on its initial focus of "pure math" research.

"I grew up in California. My father was an apple grower, and my mother's family was also involved in farming," mathematician Basor said. "So many aspects to farming are difficult. There are so many unknowns--weather, what other people are doing in other countries, pests, and supply and demand. I'm not sure that a lot of the public actually realize the risks involved. So, if we [mathematicians] can just help smooth out some of the decision-making process and help solve a few of the problems that growers might have, I think it's a really good step forward."

So, Basor talked to Driscoll Associates, familiar to many as purveyors of of Driscoll's berries, and invited them to participate in an institute workshop that brought together 30 mathematicians from around the world to discuss sustainability problems. Nine of the participants worked on the berry problem, and along with three industry representatives, got the ball rolling. These collaborators then formed a smaller group to focus on the water supply's confined aquifer and its chronic overdraft of water that had persisted over many years.

"We were given a list of possible changes that could happen in terms of crop rotation, fallowing land, looking at developing recharge areas to capture rainfall to reduce the amount of water that's being taken out of the aquifer or the ground water region," said Katie Fowler, an associate professor of mathematics at Clarkson University in Potsdam, N.Y., and member of this math team.

She explained how they could look at the problem simplistically by just considering crops' water consumption and different planting strategies. But, more sophisticated, elegant modeling included soil properties, precipitation data, topography and run-off measurements. With essentially two tiers of data, they could create a model that minimized aquifer impact and found ways to recharge it naturally.

"The approach is an example of 'multi-objective optimization,'" she said. "We've developed three performance metrics. A person is going to want to try to make as much profit as possible using the least amount of water while meeting market demands. And those [goals] are naturally competing. So our most recent work has been towards offering a set of possible solutions with a clear description of those trade-offs."

In fact, another researcher, Lea Jenkins, an associate professor in mathematical sciences at Clemson University, describes the model as "stochastic," which means values of variables are random, versus "deterministic," when a problem has parameters with fixed values.

"This problem is about math," said Dan Balbas, vice president of operations for Reiter Affiliated Companies, a grower for Driscoll's, and who attended the 2011 workshop. "You've got a given resource, so how do you maximize it to maintain sustainability and do the right thing from an economic and environmental standpoint, marrying the two. It's math. It really is math. I think the hard thing is getting the input numbers right because it's a tricky thing to quantify, but it's absolutely a mathematical situation. It's how much water do we have, and how do we best use it. It's numbers."

And it's involvement from growers that make this process work.

"Part of the reason we like to come out here is to get farmers to help us--to make sure that the models we use are reasonable or are somewhat accurate and represent a reality that they're living in," Jenkins said. "And the best we can do is give them possible solutions to a very complicated problem and then ask them how they can help us improve those solutions."

Interestingly enough, as the mathematicians talk about their process thus far, they admit that while they have collaborated with a variety of players in this issue, they still need to bring in sociologists and environmental economists to improve their model.

A better future for berries

So, this team of mathematicians has now created models that help identify which crops to plant where and when. With iPad in hand, growers like Eiskamp and Balbas can go to the fields connecting to wireless tensiometers in real time to essentially tell them when plants have been watered sufficiently, minimizing waste and ensuring fertilizers stay in the root zone where plants can most efficiently access them and keep from contaminating the water aquifer.

"The thing the math institute best did was shed light on per-unit of water--what is the best crop to grow?" Balbas said. "We found that raspberries--from a per-unit-of-water standpoint--were a better crop, so we've grown the raspberry program a little bit. Of course, that changed the economics. In fact we have so many more raspberries now, it would be good to do the analysis again. It's a moving target. There are a lot more raspberries in the valley, partly because of water, but partly because it was just good business."

Ultimately, this mathematical perspective to addressing irrigation, crop rotation and drought mitigation is something that can be applied elsewhere.

"You have a set of crops that you're planting where you are realizing a profit," Jenkins said. "The crops need certain resources to survive. It might be a berry farm here, but it might be a wheat farm in the Midwest. And it might be a soy bean or a corn farm in the Southeast."

The nuances that customize the models come with specific local or state government regulations or water management requirements.

"Water is a resource that needs to be conserved, and there are competing interests," Jenkins added. "There are environmental and ecological interests associated with keeping certain wetlands that might go dry if an underlying aquifer is overused. And the economy of a local region may depend on the economies of the farmers, so if the farmers aren't realizing the profit they need, then that impacts the economy of the whole region.

"There are not only ag users, but also urban users and recreational users. To get a unified perspective, ultimately everybody needs to get involved."

-- Ivy F. Kupec
Investigators
Lea Jenkins
David Farmer
Katie Fowler
Estelle Basor
J. Brian Conrey
Related Institutions/Organizations
American Institute of Mathematics

REMARKS BY SECRETARY OF STATE KERRY ON THE ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE

FROM:  U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT 
Remarks on Climate Change and the Environment
Remarks
John Kerry
Secretary of State
Kien Vang Market Pier
Mekong Delta, Vietnam
December 15, 2013

SECRETARY KERRY: I want to thank Dr. Dang Kieu Nhan for – from Can Tho, from the Can Tho University, who just gave me, over the course of our boat ride, a briefing, and before the boat ride, a really eye-opening briefing about the effect of climate change here in the Mekong Delta. Dr. Nhan and colleagues of the Climate Change Research Institute have been working very closely with the U.S. Geological Survey to monitor the effects of climate change in the Mekong Delta, and the United States is very grateful for that research and how it informs our environmental efforts in the region.

Now, it is obviously amazing for me to be here today. Decades ago, on these very waters, I was one of many who witnessed the difficult period in our shared history. Today, on these waters, I’m bearing witness to how far our nations have come together. And we are talking about the future, and that’s the way it ought to be. As our shared journey continues, our eyes are firmly fixed on the future, not on the past. And, my friends, nothing threatens the future of this region – where millions of people work, live and supply food for millions of other people around the world; the entire planet is impacted by what happens here. This is one of the two or three most potentially impacted areas in the world with respect to the effects of climate change.

And if we continue down the path that we are on today, scientists predict – let me emphasize, not politicians, not radio talk show hosts – but scientists predict that by the end of this century, the sea will have risen by almost a full meter on average. To some people, that doesn’t sound like a whole lot. But here, in Ca Mau, it’s easy to understand the damage that just one meter of sea-level rise would do. It would literally displace millions upon millions of people around the world. It would destroy infrastructure. It would threaten billions of dollars in global economic activity. And this hits home. The reason we’re here today is to emphasize that a large part of the world’s shrimp farming and catfish farming takes place within the delta. And there are some 70 million people who rely on the Mekong River for economic stability.

While no single storm can be related to climate change, everybody does know as a matter of scientific fact that rising temperatures would also lead to longer and more unpredictable monsoon seasons and more extreme weather events. Later this week, I will be traveling to Tacloban in the Philippines, to see firsthand the immense devastation that extreme weather events can leave in their wake. This, too, has a very special significance here in Vietnam, where every year on average between six and eight typhoons or tropical storms tear through communities. That includes Tropical Storm Linda which, years ago, killed more than 3,000 people across the country and cost nearly $400 million in damages.

Most importantly, this is the rice basket of the world right here. Rice is one of the great exports of Vietnam. And literally tens of millions, hundreds of millions of people throughout Asia and the world depend on that rice as a staple of their nutrition. Here in the breadbasket – the rice breadbasket of Vietnam, higher sea levels mean more salt water spilling into the Mekong Delta. And anybody who has ever farmed or grown a garden can tell you that salt water and salt are no friend to rice paddies.

Vietnam is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world when it comes to climate change. And we will see very serious impacts if we don’t change course today. That’s why all of us need to work together and focus in on these issues. That’s why I came down here to this remote part of the Mekong Delta, which just coincidentally happens to be a place I’ve been before. But I came here not to go into the past, but to look at this challenge that we’re facing with respect to the future.

The United States and Vietnam are already cooperating. We’re working now on many levels in order to strengthen Vietnam’s resilience to the effects that we can already see. And today I’m pleased to announce an initial commitment of $17 million for USAID’s Vietnam Forest and Deltas Program. That money will go towards helping Vietnamese communities reverse environmental degradation and adapt to climate change.

But it’s not just about adapting to climate change. We are also working to stop the worst effects of climate change from happening in the first place, including by promoting clean-energy development and energy efficiency. I’m proud to say that American companies are heavily involved in this effort: Just yesterday, when I was in Ho Chi Minh City, General Electric signed a $94 million contract with Cong Ly, a Vietnamese firm, in order to provide additional wind turbines for the first wind farm in nearby Bac Lieu province just to the north of us here.

Now, it is also true that without careful planning, some clean-energy development – like hydropower – can wind up having negative impacts on other aspects of the environment. This is a very serious issue. China is currently building dams on the Mekong River, and Thailand is contemplating building – Cambodia. There are several countries that get the waters of the Mekong before Vietnam, but they all share the benefits of these important waters. And no one country has a right to deprive another country of the livelihood and the ecosystem and its capacity for life itself that comes with that river. That river is a global asset, a treasure that belongs to the region. And so it is vital that we avoid dramatic changes in the water flow and sediment levels. And already, we are seeing that fisheries are experiencing threats to the fish stocks as a consequence of the changes taking place. This is particularly concerning given the level of aquaculture products that are the largest export of Ca Mau province. And they’re even bigger today than the rice exports.

Let me bring it home: Legal Sea Foods in Boston, Massachusetts, which now has outlets in other parts of the country – Washington, D.C. and elsewhere – comes here, and many of the fish products that come to Legal Sea Foods and other restaurants in America come from right here. We’re connected to this. Our livelihood, our economy is connected to this. And we all need to work together in order to deal with it.

That’s why decisions on infrastructure developments – including things like dams – have to be made carefully, deliberately and transparently. Sharing data and best practices in an open and cooperative dialogue will help ensure that many resources of the Mekong continue to benefit people not just in one country, not just in the country where the waters come first, but in every country that touches this great river.

I can tell you that we will – we, the United States, will continue to focus on this. And I will, in my next visit to China as well as in other international fora, raise this issue so that we can work together on it in an effective way. We, the United States, actually do have something to share with people about this, because we have worked on similar issues for a long time – for decades – with the Mississippi Delta and the Mississippi River, with the Chesapeake Bay and elsewhere in the United States. We have been through this, we’ve learned some lessons, and we want to try to share those lessons with other people. We are now developing through the Smart Infrastructure for the Mekong – or the SIM – program. We are working on sharing the lessons that we have learned. This part of the Lower Mekong Initiative is a topic that I discussed when I was in Brunei with Foreign Minister Pham Binh Minh and other foreign ministers who touch on the Lower Mekong Basin countries.

Ultimately, my friends, in Vietnam and around the world, we have a responsibility to pursue development in a way that’s sustainable for our ecosystems, for our economics, and for our climate, and for our people. And here in Ca Mau, the importance of honoring that responsibility is as clear as anywhere. And that’s why we wanted to come here today.

Local farmers and local fisheries have depended on these waters for centuries. This is not a new phenomenon. This is life itself here, and they depend on them today. They need their children to be able to depend on them in the future. And the United States is committed to working with Vietnam to make sure that they are able to do so; that our shared journey continues, and that we’re leaving behind a planet that’s worthy of the generations to come. And I can’t tell you how good it feels for me to be back here in this place, to be working on the future and to be working together with our Vietnamese friends in an effort to try to build that future together in a constructive way.

Thank you very much. (Applause.)

REMOTE-CONTROLED AIRCRAFT: THE COST OF THEIR MISSION

Lance Brady of the US Bureau of Land Management launches a USGS Raven aircraft June 21, 2012 at Glines Dam/Lake Mills on the Elwha River in Olympic National Park, Wash. Dr. Doug Clark of the Bureau of Reclamation, in background, looks on. USGS, Reclamation, BLM and other agencies are cooperating on science missions to study hydrology, sedimentation, revegetation and other issues relating to the removal of two dams on the Elwha

FROM: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

Written on November 29, 2012 by jtozer
Remote-Controlled Aircraft Work Hard for Science

Remote sensing technologies on airborne scientific missions have added new depth and dimension to scientific observation. Yet they come at a cost – literally. Flying data-gathering missions for scientists, land managers, and hazard-mitigation agencies can cost upward of $30,000 an hour.

The U.S. Geological Survey is leading a federal initiative to make this high-quality science less costly, more accessible, and more environmentally friendly by using unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) developed for the U.S. military to survey remote areas, monitor wildlife populations, and gather data on potential hazards on federal lands throughout the United States.

The science missions yield peaceful civilian uses for past-generation military technology. A roadmap adopted by the Department of the Interior (DOI) in 2010 tasks the USGS with developing certification, pilot training and proof-of-concept UAS missions through 2014 for its own USGS science centers and on behalf of federal agencies including the Office of Surface Mining (OSM), U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR), Bureau of Land Management (BLM), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the U.S. Forest Service. DOI’s Office of Aviation Services (OAS) is charged with developing aircraft airworthiness and operator certification, including training.

USGS scientists and pilots are now monitoring feral animals and invasive vegetation in Hawaii,shoreline erosion on the Missouri River on behalf of the Lower Brule Sioux people in South Dakota, spotting underground mine fires in West Virginia, and tracking the population density of sandhill cranes in Colorado. The missions save several thousands of dollars over equivalent human missions and are far safer than low-flying conventional aircraft.

Based in Denver, the USGS Unmanned Aircraft Systems Project Office has conducted missions all over the United States. The planes and their operators are subject to Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and DOIOAS rules and regulations.
"The best pilots are the ones who grew up playing video games," says UAS project manager Mike Hutt.
The USGS fleet includes several 4.5-lb battery-powered, hand-launched AeroVironment Ravens as well as T-Hawk Honeywell helicopters, which run on only a few ounces of fuel. Each type of craft can fly for roughly an hour. Initially used with their military-issue forward-looking and downward-looking analog cameras, the systems have been modified by USGS to take advantage of low-cost technology such as digital cameras, while a range of sensors are being evaluated for specific scientific missions.

Carbon dioxide sensors can be used in climate-change studies, while synthetic aperture radar would allow the

craft to fly in low-visibility conditions and provide change detection over a study area. Thermal sensors are used to monitor lakes that aren’t recharging at their historic rates.

"Are there underground ruptures drying-up springs or other changes affecting the hydrology? Fish and wildlife biologists are interested in these temperature changes. Rivers change temperature when vegetation on either side of banks is cleared, and this changes habitat," Hutt said.

The initial USGS mission in March 2011 studied the annual north-south migration of endangered sandhill cranes from Arizona through Colorado to Montana and Wyoming. The cranes fly north in the first part of February and spend much of each spring in Colorado’s San Luis Valley at the Monte Vista National Wildlife Refuge. Thermal cameras capturing images of the cranes at roost were used to determine population trends in collaboration with the FWS.

"Because the Raven is small and quiet, it could fly low enough – 75 feet – to photograph the birds without disturbing them. Moreover, the mission cost only one-tenth of a conventional airborne survey – $3,000 as opposed to $30,000 an hour," Hutt said.

Since then, USGS scientists have returned to track the cranes’ migration, and have flown Ravens on scientific missions all over the United States. On behalf of the OSM, they flew Ravens over surface mines near Charleston, W.Va., to inspect and monitor reclamation efforts. On remote reaches of the Elwha River in Washington state, the Ravens have monitored changes in vegetation and sediment after the two dams were removed from Olympic National Park. They have flown near Red Rocks Lake, Mont., where a thermal camera onboard a Raven was used to locate underwater springs that could help fish survive the winter. UAS missions have surveyed invasive weeds in south central Idaho. In September-October, the aircraft surveyed the Pitkin County coal basin in Colorado, and the San Simon watershed in Arizona, all on behalf of the BLM.

Future projects include surveys of gulls in the Farallon Islands off San Francisco; an Environmental Protection Agency Superfund site in New Castle, Del.; and climate change studies on the Colorado Front Range and in the Pacific Ocean at Palmyra Island.

The Denver-based UAS office is not the only USGS initiative to develop new uses for unmanned aircraft. In far northern California’s remote Surprise Valley, USGS geophysicists are teaming with NASA-Ames Research Center to map underground faults and fractures with the SIERRA aircraft, which is larger and has a longer range than the Raven or T-Hawk. By 2013, the USGS-NASA cooperators aim to develop payload-driven instrumentation for SIERRA that can make higher-level cognitive assessments based on real-time data, allowing the aircraft to plan and perform a complete survey mission without human intervention.

By Barbara Wilcox

MARS ROVER: THE BELLY OF THE BEAST

FROM: U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY

September 11, 2012

Sol 35 update on Curiosity from USGS Scientist Ken Herkenhoff: Belly of the Rover

There were more cheers and applause when MAHLI images of the belly of the rover were displayed. The camera, which can focus at distances from 2 cm to infinity, is working perfectly! It also took pictures of its calibration target, which includes a 1909 Lincoln penny. The arm checkout also went well, leaving the Alpha Particle X-ray Spectrometer (APXS) facing its calibration target for a long integration. Unfortunately, ChemCam suffered a command error on Sol 34 and was shut down by the rover computer. This also prevented the rest of the planned remote sensing observations from being acquired that sol, and the remote sensing mast (RSM) from being used on Sol 35. So the Sol 35 plan was rather simple, including more APXS integration on its calibration target followed by retraction of the arm. Even though we couldn't use the RSM, we could still plan a test of Mastcam's video capability, as it doesn't matter where the cameras are pointed for this test. We are all hoping that recovery from the ChemCam error will be rapid, and that we will be able to use it and the rest of the instruments on the RSM tomorrow.

USGS SAYS AFGHANISTAN HAS MODERATE TO ABUNDANT COAL

Photo:  Coal Mine U.S.  From U.S. Bureau Of Land Management
FROM: U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
Afghanistan has moderate to potentially abundant coal resources. However, most deposits are relatively deep or currently inaccessible, and reserves are largely undeveloped. Historically, coal has been used in the country for powering small industries (notably cement production, textile manufacturing, and food processing) and as a primary source of household fuel. The main factors limiting widespread use of coal are rugged terrain, lack of transportation networks, and the absence of industrial infrastructure.

USGS scientists carried out comprehensive assessments of Afghanistan’s coal resources beginning in 2005 in cooperation with the Afghan Ministry of Mines and Industries (MMI). Various agencies of MMI involved in this cooperative effort included the Afghan Geological Survey (AGS), the North Coal Department (NCD), and the Coal Mines Section of the Mining Affairs Department. The primary focus of the assessment was to determine the quality, quantity, and distribution of coal throughout Afghanistan, identify the stratigraphic and areal extent of coal deposits, and quantify coal resources on a regional and national level. Assessment activities were conducted in close cooperation with MMI as well as other governmental and nongovernmental stakeholders to assure that the Afghan coal mining sector can be developed in a safe, sustainable, environmentally sound, and economically rational way.

ADVANCING AFGHANISTAN'S AGRICULTURE USING AGRO-METEOROLOGY PROGRAM

Photo Credit: USGS
FROM: U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
Agro-Meteorology
Scientists with the USGS Agro-Meteorology (Agromet) Program are assisting the Afghan Government in collecting and analyzing agricultural and meteorological data as it relates to crop production, irrigation, water supply, energy, and aviation. Key aspects of the program have involved establishing a country-wide network of meteorological data-collecting stations and creating an extensive national database for the analysis of meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural information.

As part of the program, more than 100 agromet observation stations have been installed throughout Afghanistan. These stations make it possible to acquire current, valid agromet data that are essential for modeling and forecasting crop yields. Furthermore, continuous monitoring of key weather parameters can provide the earliest indications of potential crop failures and subsequent food shortages. Accurate agromet data are also important for assessing Afghanistan’s water supply and demand, estimating snow melt and water runoff, gauging the need for irrigation and hydropower, and validating satellite data.

Agromet program participants have helped establish an operational crop yield forecasting system (primarily for wheat) as well as a national monitoring and early warning system for droughts and floods. They have helped train nearly 200 people, including many individuals from the Afghan Meteorological Authority and various Afghan ministries, in agro- and hydrometeorological techniques and tools. With Afghan colleagues, USGS team members are also involved in publishing regular and timely agrometeorological reports, seasonal analyses, and special bulletins, and disseminating these documents among national and international agencies and NGOs.

AFGHANISTAN'S MINERAL WEALTH EXPLOITATION

Surface Materials Map of Afghanistan: Iron-bearing Minerals and Other Materials

FROM: U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY

Using the HyMap data, two surface materials maps of Afghanistan were produced: one that shows carbonates, phyllosilicates, sulfates, altered minerals, and other materials spatial distribution of minerals with diagnostic absorption features in the shortwave infrared wavelengths and another that depicts iron-bearing minerals and other materials having diagnostic absorption features at visible and near-infrared wavelengths. The 31 classes in the list of materials comprising each map key represent a necessary compromise between striving for the highly focused level of detail achievable in the best calibrated flight lines and seeking identifications that were reliably detected across the entire country and present in large enough areas to be perceptible at the scale of a national map.


Surface Materials Map of Afghanistan: Carbonates, Phyllosilicates, Sulfates, Altered Minerals, and Other Materials　

FROM: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
DOD, U.S. Agencies Help Afghanistan Exploit Mineral Wealth
By Cheryl Pellerin
American Forces Press Service

WASHINGTON, July 30, 2012 - Officials from the Defense Department and the U.S. Geological Survey gathered this month at Afghanistan's U.S. Embassy to unveil what the director of a DOD task force called a "treasure map" of the nation's mineral resources.

At the event, James Bullion of the Defense Department's Task Force for Business and Stability Operations, or TFBSO, shared the podium with USGS Director Marcia McNutt, who described a new remote-sensing technology that has made it possible, for the first time, she said, to map more than 70 percent of the country's surface and identify potential high-value deposits of copper, gold, iron, and other minerals.

DOD officials and USGS scientists work as partners in this initiative with the Afghanistan government and scientists and engineers from the Afghan Ministry of Mines and the Afghan Geological Survey.

"The task force is a Defense Department organization charged to help spur and grow the private-sector economy in Afghanistan, ... and clearly, the mineral and oil and gas extractive areas are critical to that effort," Bullion said.

Since 2009, the DOD task force has funded work there by USGS, including the effort to operate, with help from NASA, an airborne instrument called a hyperspectral imager to map surface indicators of natural resources below Afghanistan's rugged mountainous terrain.

"The work that the U.S. Geological Survey has done has been critical to the whole process," Bullion said. "In essence, what they've done is built a treasure map for Afghanistan, which is full of these hidden mineral and oil and gas treasures."

Scientists from USGS began working in Afghanistan in 2004, when the agency was asked to help rebuild the nation's natural resource sector, McNutt said. The geological data USGS scientists found was 50 to 75 years old, originating from the late 1960s when a Soviet mission for about 10 years helped the Afghan government with geological mapping.

From August to October 2007, NASA contributed its mid-wing, long-range WB-57 aircraft to fly the USGS hyperspectral instrument over Afghanistan, mapping more than 70 percent of the country. In 2009, USGS and the DOD task force became partners and worked closely, Bullion said, to help to get the hyperspectral data into a format that mining companies could use to evaluate opportunities in the mineral sector.

"Hyperspectral data uses the reflectance of light and uses the fact that different minerals reflect light in different wavelength bands," McNutt explained. "Every mineral has its own signature or fingerprint."

Hyperspectral imaging characterizes minerals only on the surface of the Earth, not underground where the minerals are mined. The technology wouldn't work well in countries where forests, grasses and soil cover the ground, but it's perfect for Afghanistan. Over 50 million years, the slow-motion collision of Iran and Eurasian tectonic plates beneath Afghanistan formed rugged, rocky mountains out of what used to be mineral-laden subsurface rock.

The hyperspectral instrument "can be used in a place where there's no vegetative cover, and Afghanistan happens to have almost no vegetation and it is resource-laden," McNutt explained. "And because of plate tectonic properties, ... it has been tectonically uplifted and tectonically unroofed to reveal at the surface the mother lode of resources."

Over 43 days and 23 flights, USGS flew nearly 23,000 miles, collecting data that covered 170,000 square miles.

When compared with conventional ground mapping, McNutt added, hyperspectral technology has accelerated by decades the ability to identify the most promising areas for Afghan economic development.

In December, supported by the DOD task force, officials from Afghanistan's Ministry of Mines opened tender processes, or auctions, for exploration and later exploitation of four project areas in the country.

The Badakhshan gold project is in Badakhshan province, the Zarkashan copper and gold project is in Ghazni province, the Balkhab copper project spans Sar-I-Pul and Balkh provinces, and the Shaida copper project is in Herat province.

Bids for the Balkhab project were opened July 24, and a preferred bidder will be announced when the evaluations are complete, ministry officials said in a statement.

At the Afghan embassy event, a USGS official characterized the value of Afghanistan's mineral and other deposits.

"We have identified somewhere between 10 and 12 world-class copper, gold, iron ore [and] rare earth deposits that no one knew were there," Jack Medlin, regional specialist for the Asia-Pacific region in the USGS international programs office, told the audience.

"In our 2007 publication, we gave an estimate of undiscovered mineral resources for the country, and ... you can add up the tonnages of copper, lead, gold, iron, silver and so forth. ... But this country has many more world-class mineral deposits than most countries in the world, if not more than any country," he said.

That doesn't mean it will be easy to turn these resources into national income, Medlin told American Forces Press Service.

Once a company wins a bid for an Afghan site, it will gather all information about the site, including the hyperspectral data and any geologic, geochemical and geophysical information, he said. It will also send its own geologists to the site to do detailed mapping and arrange for detailed airborne gravity and magnetic studies, Medlin said, which gives the company a subsurface three-dimensional picture of the ore deposit.

The company checks the absolute grade and tonnage of the ore deposit by drilling through the ore body, collecting a rock core and sending it to a chemical laboratory for analysis. If the results are positive, he added, the company creates a mine plan and determines the mining method.

"You're talking about a capital investment of billions of dollars up front before you've even mined a pound of ore," Medlin said. "It's the reason companies want well-defined mining laws ... and they want all the legal and regulatory requirements spelled out."

In the Afghan mining brochure, Minister of Mines Wahidulla Shahrani describes major road and rail development and ongoing work on electric transmission lines, a favorable legal and fiscal regime, stable mineral laws and regulations, and physical security for working mines.

A mine protection unit has 1,500 security personnel at the Aynak copper mine in Logar province, according to the Ministry of Mines, and the Afghan government plans to increase the number of personnel to 7,000 for future mining projects.

At the embassy event, Afghanistan's Ambassador to the United States Eklil Hakimi thanked DOD and the USGS for their help with the mining enterprise and discussed the potential economic benefits.

"The estimated direct revenue to be generated by royalties and taxes from the extractive industries could reach up to $1.5 billion by 2016 and exceed $3.7 billion by 2026," Hakimi said, "and will become a major source of employment, with 165,000 jobs anticipated by 2016 and up to half a million by 2026.

"As we recently stressed at the Tokyo Conference [on Afghanistan in July]," he continued, "a peaceful future for Afghanistan rests in development and a sustainable economy, one that's not dependent on international assistance and can provide jobs for the people."

In response to a question from the audience, McNutt said the Afghans are eager to embrace modern geophysical techniques and technology and to be responsible for their own success.

"The word that I hear is [the Afghans] want to do this themselves," the USGS director added. "They ... are eager to take leadership and ownership of these projects and learn how to do it because they're excited about rebuilding."

DOES IT RAIN FISH AND FROGS? MAYBE

FROM:  U.S. LIBRARY OF CONGRESS                        PHOTO:   U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
Can it rain frogs, fish, and other objects?
There have been reports of raining frogs and fish dating back to ancient civilization. Of course, it doesn’t “rain” frogs or fish in the sense that it rains water - no one has ever seen frogs or fish vaporize into the air before a rainfall. However, strong winds, such as those in a tornado or hurricane, are powerful enough to lift animals, people, trees, and houses.  It is possible that they could suck up a school of fish or frogs and “rain” them elsewhere.

Many scientists believe tornadic waterspouts may be responsible for frog and fish rainfalls.  According to Complete Weather Resource (1997), “a tornadic waterspout is merely a tornado that forms over land and travels over the water.”  An especially strong kind of waterspout, they are not as strong as land based tornadoes, which can reach up to 310 miles per hour.  But tornadic waterspouts can reach 100 miles per hour, which can still be quite destructive.

A popular misconception is that waterspouts “rise out of the sea.” In reality, they begin in the air and descend toward the water’s surface. The first visible sign of a tornadic waterspout is usually a dark spot on the water’s surface, which is caused by a spinning column of low-pressure air stirring up the water from overhead.  As the spinning column of air, or vortex, gains momentum, the surrounding water is pulled into a spiral pattern of light and dark bands. Eventually a ring of spraying water, called the cascade,forms around the base.  The characteristic funnel extending from the sky toward the water’s surface becomes visible in the fourth stage of the waterspout’s development. At this point, it is considered a mature storm.

Like a tornado, a mature waterspout consists of a low-pressure central vortex surrounded by a rotating funnel of updrafts.  The vortex at the center of these storms is strong enough to “suck up” surrounding air, water, and small objects like a vacuum. These accumulated objects are deposited back to earth as “rain” when the waterspout loses its energy.  Most of the water seen in the funnel of a waterspout is actually condensate —moisture in the air resulting from the condensation of water vapor.

Professor Ernest Agee from Purdue University says, “I’ve seen small ponds literally emptied of their water by a passing tornado. So, it wouldn’t be unreasonable for frogs (or other living things) to ‘rain’ from the skies” (Chandler, 2004).  Most scientists agree that salt, stones, fish, or frogs can be pulled into a waterspout’s swirling updrafts and deposited once the waterspout hits land and loses its energy.

Although waterspouts are the most commonly offered explanation for animal rainfalls, some scientists, such as Doc Horsley from Southern Illinois University, theorize that any unusually powerful updraft could lift small organisms or organic material into the sky during a storm (Chandler, 2004). An updraft is a wind current caused by warm air from high pressure areas near the earth rising into cooler, low-pressure areas in the atmosphere. Because the cooling causes water in the air to condense, updrafts play an important role in cloud formation and storm development.  During thunderstorms, updrafts can reach speeds of more than 60 miles per hour— comparable to the winds of moderate-intensity waterspouts.

When it rained frogs in Kansas City in 1873, Scientific Americaconcluded that it must have been caused by a tornado or other land-based storm, since there were no swamps or other bodies of water in the vicinity (Cerveny, 2006).  Similarly, when it hailed frogs in Dubuque, Iowa on June 16, 1882, scientists speculated that small frogs were picked up by a powerful updraft and frozen into hail in the cold air above earth’s surface. Although no one has actually witnessed an updraft lifting frogs off the ground, the theory is scientifically plausible since updrafts regularly pick up lightweight debris and carry it considerable distances.

What is unusual in reports of animal rainfalls is the uniformity of the deposition.   When it rains frogs or fishes, witnesses reportonly fish or only frogs falling. According to William Hayden Smith of Washington University, this makes sense since objects of similar size and weight would naturally be deposited together. As winds lose their energy, the heavier objects fall first and smaller objects drop later.

                                                                     PHOTO:  NOAA 

Despite the numerous reports of raining animals, scientists still approach the area with skepticism. Many historical reports are provided by second or third-hand accounts, making their reliability questionable. Also, because of the popularity and mystery surrounding stories about raining animals, some people falsely report an animal rainfall after seeing large numbers of worms, frogs, or birds on the ground after a storm. However, these animals did not fall from the sky. Instead, storms fill in worm burrows, knock birds from trees and roofs, wash fish onto the shores of rivers and ponds, and drive frogs and other small animals from their habitats. People who live in suburban or urban environments tend to underestimate the number of organisms living around their homes. Therefore, they may suspect that animals came from the sky rather than their natural habitat.

Despite the cautious skepticism of the scientific community, a number of eyewitness reports strongly suggest rainfalls of frogs, fish, and other materials on occasion. For instance:

On October 23, 1947, A.D. Bajkov, a biologist with the Louisiana Department of Wildlife, was eating breakfast at a restaurant in Marksville, Louisiana when the waitress told him and his wife that fish were falling from the sky. “There were spots on Main Street, in the vicinity of the bank (a half block from the restaurant) averaging one fish per square yard. Automobiles and trucks were running over them. Fish also fell on the roofs of houses…I personally collected from Main Street and several yards on Monroe Street, a large jar of perfect specimens and preserved them in Formalin, in order to distribute them among various museums.”

On June 7, 2005, thousands of frogs rained on Odzaci, a small town in northwestern Serbia. Climatologist Slavisa Ignjatovic described the phenomenon as “not very unusual” because the strong winds that accompanied the storm could have easily picked up the frogs.

At the end of February, 2010, residents of Lajamanu, a small Australian town, saw hundreds of spangled perch fall from the sky. Christine Balmer was walking home when the rain/fish started to fall. “These fish fell in their hundreds and hundreds all over the place. The locals were running around everywhere to pick them up,” she reported.