U.S. DROUGHT ASSESSMENT AS OF MID-AUGUST 2012

 

FROM:  U.S.  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

Latest Seasonal Assessment -

Drought covered over 60 percent of the contiguous 48 states as of mid-August 2012, although significant expansion finally halted during the last couple of weeks. Still, almost one-quarter of the country was experiencing extreme to exceptional drought (D3 – D4 on the Drought Monitor), primarily in a large swath generally extending from the central Rockies eastward through the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. Many locations from Indiana, the western reaches of Tennessee and Kentucky, and Arkansas westward through parts of Iowa, central Kansas, and eastern Oklahoma received 8 to 12 inches less precipitation than normal April 1 – August 14, 2012, with a few areas reporting deficits exceeding one foot. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, 51 percent of the corn crop was in poor or very poor condition across the 18 primary corn-producing states, as was 48 percent of sorghum (11 primary producing states) and 38 percent of soybeans (18 states). For the contiguous 48 states as a whole, 59 percent of pastures and rangelands were in poor or very poor condition, with 4 states reporting more than 90 percent of their pastures and rangelands in poor or very poor condition (Missouri 98 percent, Illinois 94 percent, Nebraska 92 percent, Kansas 90 percent) and another 6 states topping 85 percent. The Drought Outlook valid through the end of November 2012 indicates drought conditions will remain essentially unchanged in large sections of the central Mississippi Valley, the central and southwestern Great Plains, most of the High Plains, the central Rockies, the Great Basin, and parts of the Far West, though the seasonal declines in temperatures, evaporative moisture loss, and water demand should preclude any widespread worsening of conditions. At least some improvement is forecast for much of the central Rockies, the Southwest, the southern Great Plains, the Ohio Valley, the Great Lakes region, the upper Midwest, and the eastern tier of states. In Hawaii, the odds favor cooler- and drier-than-normal conditions through the rest of the year as a whole, which should cause drought to persist and expand through most of the state except for eastern sections of the Big Island. The developing El Niño episode, expected to last through the winter, could begin to bring above-normal precipitation to parts of the southern and eastern states late in the period.

ISAAC AND THE HURRICANE HUNTERS

Photo Credit:  NASA
FROM: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

'Hurricane Hunters' Track Isaac as Southcom, Northcom Prepare
By Donna Miles
American Forces Press Service

WASHINGTON, Aug. 23, 2012 - With Tropical Storm Isaac bearing down on the Dominican Republic and Haiti and threatening to strengthen over the eastern Caribbean, the "Hurricane Hunters" from the Air Force Reserve's 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron are in the air, relaying critical data to National Weather Service forecasters in Miami.

Meanwhile, staffs at both the U.S. Southern and Northern Commands are monitoring the storm closely and ensuring they are ready to provide support to civilian authorities, including the U.S. Agency for International Development and Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Three six-person crews from the 53rd WRS and their maintainers and support staff deployed to St. Croix from Keesler Air Force Base, Miss., last weekend, Air Force Lt. Col. Jon Talbot, the squadron's chief meteorologist, told American Forces Press Service. Operating out of the international airport there, they began flying their specially equipped C-130J Hercules aircraft through the storm Aug. 21.

On a typical mission that can run up to 12 hours, the aircrews crisscross the storm in what the teams call an "alpha pattern," he explained. Sophisticated onboard instruments and small canisters dropped by parachute to the ocean's surface collect accurate measurements of the storm's location and intensity.

That information is fed continuously to the National Hurricane Center via an onboard satellite link. In addition, the aircraft sends automated messages every 10 minutes, relaying barometric pressure, wind speed and direction, and other measurements.

"The reason this data is critical is because, with satellites, you can track where storms are and get a general picture, but you can't peer into the storm and physically measure what is happening at the ocean's surface," Talbot said. "That is the important piece of information you need to know when it comes to providing warnings to the public. The emergency management community needs to know what is going on near the surface of the ocean, because those are the winds that are going to come ashore."

With about six missions already under their belts during the past three days, Talbot said, the pace will pick up considerably as Isaac moves west toward the United States. "Currently, we are doing about three missions a day, but that will go up to four or five when the storm comes within 300 miles of the U.S. coastline," he said.

The Hurricane Hunters expect to move west along with the storm, redeploying to Keesler Air Force Base to resume those missions beginning this weekend. In the event that the crews have to evacuate Keesler, Talbot said, they already have alternate operating sites lined up. "We track these things pretty closely, because if we end up having to jump from here, we still have to continue flying and providing that data while we are evacuating our own resources," he said. "It becomes a big, tangled web, but it always works out pretty well."

As a precaution, aircraft and ships are being moved out of the storm's possible path and other assets are being secured, according to Southcom spokesman Army Lt. Col. Darryl Wright. Planning teams are busy running rehearsal meetings and preparing to verify personnel and resource requests, if USAID issues them, he said.

Wright emphasized that military support, if provided, would be part of a coordinated U.S. response led by civilian authorities. "We conduct close coordination and planning and provide DOD support to relief efforts upon request," he said. "Through this close coordination, we ensure that we respond with the most efficient means available to the U.S. government."

In terms of disaster response, Wright said efficiency is typically more important than speed in reducing suffering and saving lives.

Northcom, too, is in a monitoring mode. But with the storm expected to intensify late this weekend when it hits the Atlantic and the Florida Straits, the command deployed a defense coordinating officer and element to Puerto Rico on Aug. 20 to support FEMA, John Cornelio, Northcom's media operations chief, told American Forces Press Service.

The element of about 20 people is assessing the situation and standing ready to provide assistance, if requested. "We have learned the value of being forward enough to cut down on the response time, if required," Cornelio said.

With Isaac's path still anyone's guess, officials say it's too soon to know whether it will hit Tampa, site of next week's Republican National Convention. Northcom has a team deployed there to support the Secret Service during the convention, Cornelio reported.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ISSUES STATEMENT ON EARTHQUAKE IN HAWAII AND TSUNAMI RISK

FROM:  NATIONAL WEATHER SERCIICE
SUNAMI SEISMIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER   2
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
410 AM HST WED MAY 23 2012

TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII


SUBJECT - CORRECTION--LOCAL TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT

THIS STATEMENT IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY. NO ACTION REQUIRED.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

   ORIGIN TIME - 0344 AM HST 23 MAY 2012
   COORDINATES - 19.0 NORTH  157.0 WEST
   LOCATION    - IN THE DEEP OCEAN OFF THE KONA COAST OF BIG ISLAND
   MAGNITUDE   - 3.8

EVALUATION

 NO TSUNAMI IS EXPECTED. REPEAT. NO TSUNAMI IS EXPECTED.
 HOWEVER...SOME AREAS MAY HAVE EXPERIENCED SHAKING.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED.