RESEARCH SHOWS FLOODS IN MIDWEST HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN FREQUENCY

FROM:  NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION
Scientists confirm that Midwest floods are more frequent
Floods happening more often over past half-century
February 9, 2015

The U.S. Midwest region and surrounding states have endured increasingly more frequent floods during the last half-century, according to results of a new study.

The researchers, affiliated with the University of Iowa (UI) and funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF), based their findings on daily records collected by the U.S. Geological Survey at 774 stream gauges in 14 states from 1962-2011, a data collection period in common for all the stations.

They found that 264, or 34 percent, of the stations had an increase in frequency in the number of flood events, while only 66 stations, 9 percent, showed a decrease.

"We have been experiencing a larger number of big floods," says Gabriele Villarini, UI civil and environmental engineer and corresponding author of a paper reporting the results published today in the journal Nature Climate Change.

The findings likely come as no surprise to millions of people in the Midwest and bordering states.

During the past several decades, large floods have plagued the region in 1993, 2008, 2011, 2013 and again in 2014.

"Floods have the potential to take an immense toll on society in economic damages and other long-term effects," says Anjuli Bamzai, program director in NSF's Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences, which funded the research.

"This study looks at how such events may have changed over recent decades across the central U.S."

The floods caused agricultural and other economic losses in the billions of dollars, displaced people and led to loss of life.

"There is a pattern with increasing frequency of flood events from North Dakota south to Iowa and Missouri and east into Illinois, Indiana and Ohio," says Iman Mallakpour, UI civil and environmental engineer and lead author of the paper.

"We related this increasing number of big floods to changes in rainfall and temperature," adds Villarini.

"There was an overall good match between the areas with increasing frequency of floods and areas experiencing increasing frequency of heavy rainfall."

Seasonal analysis revealed that most of the flood peaks in the upper Midwest occur in the spring and stem primarily from snowmelt, rain falling on frozen ground, and rain-on-snow events.

Spring--a season with heavy rains--also has the strongest increase in temperature over most of the northern part of the region studied.

The findings fit well with current thinking among scientists about how the hydrologic cycle is being affected by climate change.

In general, as the atmosphere becomes warmer, it can hold more moisture. One consequence of higher water vapor concentrations is more frequent, intense precipitation.

Villarini says the current study did not attempt to link the increase in the number of episodes with climate change.

"What causes the observed changes in precipitation and temperature is not something we have addressed because of the difficulties in doing so based on observational records," he says.

The study region included Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, West Virginia, Kentucky, North Dakota and South Dakota.

The method used involved establishing a threshold level of two flood events per year, on average, for each of the 774 stream gauges in the study.

To avoid counting the same event twice, the researchers allowed for the recording of only one event within a 15-day period.

The research was also funded by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Institute for Water Resources, the Iowa Flood Center and IIHR-Hydroscience & Engineering.

-NSF-
Media Contacts
Cheryl Dybas, NSF

FEMA PHOTOS OF THE RECENT FLOODS IN ILLINOIS

 

 FROM: FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY
Albany Park, Ill., April 29, 2013 --Layers of sand bags lay stagnant along North Branch of the Chicago River in Cook County Illinois. Efforts were made to combat the rising flood waters from the river that flowed above 3 feet into homes, basements and down streets. More than seven inches of rain fell in parts of northeast and central Illinois. FEMA conducted Preliminary Damage Assessments to determine whether a disaster declaration was needed for Illinois. Bryan Adams- FEMA Corps.

Des Plaines, Ill., April 30, 2013 --Covered in mud and silt, appliances in a flooded basement await to be removed. Many homes, businesses and roads were damaged and compromised due to severe flash flooding on April 18 andmore than 7 inches of rain fell in parts of northeast and central Illinois. Bryan Adams-FEMA Corps.

 

SOME FLOOD VICTIMS DON’T MOVE BACK; THEY MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND

FROM:  FEMA
Photo: West Virginia Flood Aftermath.  Credit:   FEMA
CHARLESTON, W. Va. -- Sometimes it’s unwise to challenge Mother Nature. As West Virginians know all too well, in many areas of the state flash floods are frequent visitors, and an increasing number of homeowners have decided to seek higher ground.

One family in Stollings saw its two-story house inundated time and again by the nearby Guyandotte River. Flood insurance paid for most of the repeated repairs and cleanups, but no policy can make up for the stress of being repeatedly flooded. And as the disasters continue, a vulnerable house inevitably becomes worth less and less.

The Logan County Commission had determined that the flash flooding of 2004 caused enormous damage to many homes in the Stollings neighborhood, and several homeowners chose to take advantage of the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s “buyout” process under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. After the flood of May, 2007, the family also decided it was time to move and accepted the county’s buyout offer.

These projects are normal real-estate transactions. Homeowners are paid fair market value for their homes as calculated before the damage occurred. Once the property is purchased, the structures are removed and the property becomes public open space or green space. It can never be developed or sold to private parties. It can be used as a public park, can be leased for agricultural use, but no structures of any kind can be erected thereon.

The Buyout program is completely voluntary on the part of the property owner and the community. Buyout, or “acquisition,” projects are administered by the state and local communities, be they towns or counties. While FEMA shoulders 75 percent of the costs, it does not buy houses directly from the property owners.

The property owners do not apply to the state for buyouts, but the community may sponsor applications on their behalf. Those applications are prepared by the communities with the input of homeowners whose properties have suffered heavy damage. The applications are completed after the state has advised the community of any state priorities or special restrictions. The state and community work together to identify where buyouts would make the most sense.

The state then submits whatever applications they deem appropriate for action for FEMA’s review, which ensures the rules are being followed, the environment is protected and the buyouts would be a cost-effective use of funds.

If and when FEMA approves the purchase, the community begins to acquire the property. The actual transaction is done by the community or the county. FEMA warns that the process is not quick. The whole buyout process from the day of the disaster to the property settlement can take up to two years.

The family in Stollings has now moved to safer ground. The house is gone and the property is an empty, grassy open space. When the floods hit Logan County in March of this year, this property had no house left to damage or destroy, and the open spaces where houses once sat helped reduce flooding downstream.

FEMA’s mission is to support our citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain, and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover