EXAMINING ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR REGION

FROM:  NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION
Scientists map sustainability challenges in Baja California Sur fisheries

Conduct review of ecological and social data for 12 regions around Baja
The waters surrounding Baja California Sur are teeming with fish. They're also favorite locales for fishers in pursuit of a living.

But like cross-currents in the ocean, the needs of humans and fish meet--and often clash--in this deep blue sea.

In results published this week in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), scientists assessed marine sustainability in the Baja California Sur region by applying a framework that accounts for both ecological and human dimensions of environmental stewardship.

The resulting maps, the researchers say, are mosaics of regional sustainability outlooks with the potential to guide environmental policy.

The maps, according to lead PNAS paper author Heather Leslie of Brown University in Providence, R.I., show regional strengths and weaknesses that can help guide fishers, conservationists and other decision-makers as they consider steps to preserve the peninsula's coastal marine ecosystems.

"This framework enabled us to integrate many different types of data related to coupled human-environment systems," says Leslie.

"We were able to be more comprehensive in our analysis than we would have otherwise--for example, if we had focused solely on the data closest to our individual disciplines."

Dozen regions near Baja California Sur profiled

Leslie and the team--which included anthropologists, economists, ecologists, fisheries scientists, geographers and other social scientists--gathered data on 13 ecological and social variables for each of 12 regions around Baja California Sur.

They developed a profile of sustainability potential for each region in four "dimensions": social governance systems and actors, and ecological resource units and resource systems.

What became clear, says Leslie, is that each region's profile is different, suggesting that the most effective policies to achieve sustainability will be those tailored to shore up each area's weaknesses without undermining its strengths.

"More than one billion people worldwide rely on fish and other seafood as their primary source of nutrition, yet coastal resources are often poorly understood and at risk of long-term decline," says Sarah Ruth, a program director for the National Science Foundation's (NSF) Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems (CNH) Program, which funded the research.

"Fisheries involve people and coastal ecosystems interacting with one another in myriad ways," says Ruth. "This work increases our understanding of these complex systems, and ultimately will help us manage marine resources in a more sustainable way."

Magdalena Bay and Todos Santos: A tale of two regions

Take, for example, stories the researchers' maps illustrate about the Pacific coast regions of Magadalena Bay and Todos Santos. If Baja California Sur is a leg, then Magdalena Bay would be the knee and Todos Santos the front of the ankle.

In Magdalena Bay, fisheries are diverse and productive. But the area is also crowded with fishers who use different kinds of gear and don't necessarily all follow the same locally developed rules, Leslie says.

While the ecological foundation there for sustainability looks good, the social dimensions are considerably less promising, the scientists found.

"Depending on which type of data one musters regarding the potential for sustainable fisheries, Magdalena Bay could be scored as either well-endowed or quite weak," write the paper authors, which also include Xavier Basurto of Duke University and Octavio Aburto-Ooropeza of the University of California, San Diego.

In Todos Santos, local-scale fisheries institutions are strong. There is cooperation and compliance among fishers, based on the social science surveys the researchers conducted.

But the nearshore ocean is less productive and yields fewer fish species than Magdalena Bay, just 150 miles to the north.

While not far geographically, the regions are opposites in their social and ecological profiles, says Leslie.

In Magdalena Bay, the most productive strategy might be to cultivate stronger local institutions, Leslie says. In Todos Santos, maintaining existing local institutional strength might make more sense.

Are there fundamental trade-offs?

The diversity of regional strengths and weaknesses shown in the maps is borne out statistically.

The researchers looked for correlations among the four dimensions across Baja California Sur, but found few.

"Does something like this represent fundamental trade-offs?" Leslie asks. "What we found suggests that it does. There's nowhere that does well in every dimension."

The David and Lucile Packard Foundation, Brown University's Environmental Change Initiative and Voss Environmental Fellowship Program, and other organizations also funded the research.

-- Cheryl Dybas, NSF
-- David Orenstein, Brown University
Investigators
Heather Leslie
Sriniketh Nagavarapu
Related Institutions/Organizations
Brown University

NASA SATELLITE SHOWS HURRICANE VANCE ADVANCING TOWARD MEXICO

FROM:  NASA 

NASA's Aqua satellite saw Hurricane Vance off Mexico's west coast on Nov. 3. Clouds covered Socorro Island and stretched as far east as Puerto Vallarta.  Image Credit: NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team
NASA's Aqua Satellite Sees Hurricane Vance Headed for Landfall in Western Mexico

NASA's Aqua satellite passed over Vance on Nov. 3 as it started moving in a northeasterly direction toward the northwestern coast of Mexico. On Nov. 4, a Tropical Storm Watch was in effect from Mazatlan northward to Topolobampo, Mexico. Hurricane Vance is forecast to make landfall in northwestern mainland Mexico on Nov. 5.

On Nov. 3 at 20:50 UTC (3:50 p.m. EST) the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument that flies aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured a visible image of Hurricane Vance off Mexico's west coast. The eastern quadrant of the storm covered Socorro Island and stretched as far east as Puerto Vallarta. Around the center of circulation were a thick band of strong thunderstorms that appeared bright white on the MODIS image. Vance's eye was no longer visible as it had filled in with clouds.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported at 10 a.m. EST (7 a.m. PST/1500 UTC) on Nov. 4 that Vance's maximum sustained winds had decreased to 85 mph (140 kph) and rapid weakening was forecast. The center of Hurricane Vance was located near latitude 19.3 north and longitude 109.6 west. That puts the center of Vance about 100 miles (155 km) east-northeast of Socorro Island. Vance is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 kph) and is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Vance is expected to bring large amounts of rainfall to northwestern Mexico. Rainfall totals of 4 to8 inches with isolated amounts near 12 inches through Wednesday, Nov. 5 over the states of Sinaloa, Nayarit and Durango in western Mexico. NHC noted that swells generated by Vance will be affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur today and tonight.

Over the next 24 to 36 hours, Vance could weaken to a tropical depression by the time it reaches the coast of Mexico. Landfall is expected mid-day Wednesday, Nov. 5.