Showing posts with label THUNDERSTORMS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label THUNDERSTORMS. Show all posts

Thursday, February 6, 2014

CYCLONE EDILSON THREATENS RODRIGUES ISLAND AND MAURITIUS

Right:  NASA's Aqua satellite captured this infrared image of Tropical Cyclone Edilson on Feb. 5 at 09:47 UTC showing strong thunderstorms with heavy rain potential around and north of the center.  Image Credit-NASA JPL, Ed Olsen

FROM:  NASA 
Tropical Cyclone Edilson Birth Caught By NASA's Aqua Satellite

The thirteenth tropical cyclone of the Southern Pacific Ocean season formed into a tropical storm named Edilson on February 5 shortly before NASA's Aqua satellite passed overhead. Edilson is threatening several land areas.
A Class I Cyclone Warning is now in effect for Rodrigues Island and a Class II Cyclone Warning is in effect for Mauritius. Edilson formed to the northern of Mauritius and is moving south.

At 09:50 UTC/4:50 a.m. EST on February 5, NASA's Aqua satellite passed over Edilson and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument captured a visible image of the storm. The MODIS image showed a large broken band of thunderstorms to the north, and a large band of storms from the east, wrapping into the low-level center of circulation. Edilson's center was to the northeast of the islands of Mauritius and La Reunion, and Edilson's eastern quadrant had spread clouds over Rodrigues Island of the Republic of Mauritius.
The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder or AIRS instrument also aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured infrared data on Edilson at the same time that showed strong thunderstorms with heavy rain potential around and north of the center. Cloud top temperatures in those areas were in excess of -63F/-52C.

On February 5 at 1500 UTC/10 a.m. EST, Edilson had maximum sustained winds near 40 knots/46 mph/73 kph. The center of the tropical storm was about 297 nautical miles/341.8 miles/550 km northeast of Saint Denis, La Reunion Island, near 18.9 south latitude and 60.0 east longitude. Edilson is moving to the south at 8 knots/9.2 mph/14.8 kph.

Edilson is moving along the western edge of a mid-layered subtropical ridge (elongated area) of high pressure situated to the east of the tropical storm.  As Edilson continues tracking along the high, it will begin to move more southward over the coming days.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center expects Edilson to intensify to hurricane force briefly before weakening.

Thursday, August 29, 2013

RED SKY AT NIGHT

FROM:  NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION

Is it a bird, a plane, a UFO? It's a...red sprite
Strange lights in the sky studied by atmospheric scientists
Is it a bird, is it a plane, is it a UFO? Strange lights in the sky are being closely watched by atmospheric scientists.

Dubbed red sprites by researchers, these dancing fairies-of-the-clouds are sometimes glimpsed as blood-red bursts of light in the shape of jellyfish.

At other times, they appear as trumpet-shaped blue emissions, called blue jets. Like the most elusive of nymphs, however, red sprites and blue jets come out on only one occasion: during severe thunderstorms.

Although sporadically reported for years by airline pilots, only in the past decade or two has there been enough evidence to convince atmospheric scientists to investigate the phenomenon.

What's that in the skies?

Now baffled researchers asking "What in the world is this?" may have found answers.

Above a thunderstorm's black clouds, sprites appear as bursts of red light flashing far into Earth's atmosphere, according to scientist Hans Nielsen of the University of Alaska at Fairbanks.

The brief flashes look like glowing jellyfish, with red bells and purple tentacles. In a single night, a large thunderstorm system can emit up to one hundred sprites.

Into the wild blue--or red--yonder

Nielsen, Jason Ahrns, also of the University of Alaska at Fairbanks, Matthew McHarg of the U.S. Air Force Academy and researchers from Fort Lewis College teamed up this summer to study sprites.

They used the National Science Foundation (NSF)/National Center for Atmospheric Research Gulfstream-V aircraft, a high-flying plane capable of reaching altitudes of 50,000 feet, to conduct their research. Their project is funded by NSF.

Sprites are similar to lightning, say Nielsen and McHarg, in that they are electrical discharges from the atmosphere.

But while sprites mimic lightning "in some ways," says McHarg, "they're different in others. Lightning happens below and within clouds, at altitudes of two to five miles. Sprites occur far above the clouds, at about 50 miles up--10 times higher than lightning."

They're also huge, he says, reaching 30 miles high.

"Red sprites don't last very long, though, about one-one thousandth of a second. That's 300 times quicker than the time it takes us to blink!"

Blue jets, which weren't directly part of the scientists' study, stick around longer than red sprites, originate at the tops of storm clouds, and shoot up to an altitude less than half that of red sprites. Blue jets are narrower than red sprites, and fan out like trumpet-shaped flowers in blue or purple hues.

"This field of research is fast evolving, and is important for understanding the global electric circuit," says Anne-Marie Schmoltner, program director in NSF's Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences, which supports the research. "The red sprite airborne field campaign this summer provided observations at unprecedented time resolutions."

What makes thunderstorms' celestial lights

Atmospheric researchers have developed theories to try to explain these celestial lights.

Red sprites may happen at the time of positively charged cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, which make up about ten percent of all lightning and are many times more powerful than more common, negatively charged lightning.

The flashes may be akin to giant electric sparks.

After a powerful ground strike, the electric field above a thunderstorm may become strengthened to the point that it causes an "electrical breakdown," an overload that weakens the atmosphere's resistance to electric current flow. The result is an immense red spark, or sprite, in the atmosphere.

Although still something of a mystery, red sprites have helped solve other long-standing questions.

Scientists have found that red sprites create some of the low-frequency radio bursts picked up for years by instruments around the world, but whose source was unknown.

Large bursts of gamma rays, emanating from Earth rather than space, originate during thunderstorms, although their exact relationship to red sprites remains unclear.

Researchers now wonder whether red sprites (and blue jets) might affect the atmosphere in important ways.

For example, sprites and jets might alter the chemical composition of the upper atmosphere. Though brief, they could set off lasting charges.

Sprites' deep red color is caused by the light emitted from nitrogen molecules in the atmosphere, says McHarg. Red sprites may turn out to be important to atmospheric chemistry and global climate by changing concentrations of nitric oxides high in the atmosphere.

The researchers are using a technique called high-speed spectroscopy to study sprites' different colors to determine the amount of energy the sprites carry, and to find out more about their chemical composition.

How to see a sprite

Can thunderstorm-watchers on the ground glimpse red sprites and blue jets with the naked eye? Yes, if they know where to look.

Viewers must be able to see a distant thunderstorm with no clouds in the way, in an area without city lights. Then they must look above the storm, not at the lightning within the clouds.

It's likely, say the scientists, that if watchers wait long enough, they'll see a red sprite. Blue jets are more elusive. The best viewing would probably come from a plane flying very high, and located miles and miles away from a thunderstorm.

With its rubber tires, a car may be the safest vehicle from which to hunt for ephemeral sprites of the thunderclouds.

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

THE THUNDERSTORM PREDICTABILITY EXPERIMENT

 
Ominous clouds signal a thunderstorm brewing on the U.S. Great Plains. Credit: NOAA


FROM: NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION
Where, When Will Thunderstorms Strike Colorado's Front Range, Adjacent Great Plains?

To better predict where and when spring thunderstorms rip across Colorado's Front Range and the adjacent Great Plains, researchers launched a major field project with high-flying aircraft and fine-grained computer simulations.

The month-long study could point the way to major improvements in lead times for weather forecasts during what has been called a crucial six- to 24-hour window.

"People want to know whether there will be thunderstorms and when," says National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) scientist Morris Weisman, one of four principal investigators on the project.

"We're hoping to find out where you need to collect observations in order to get the most improvement in short-term forecasts. Better prediction with a few hours of lead time could make a big difference in helping people prepare."

MPEX (pronounced "em-pex"), the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment, runs from May 15 to June 15 and is funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF).

The project includes participants from NCAR; Colorado State University; the University at Albany, State University of New York; Purdue University; the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee; and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Severe Storms Laboratory.

"MPEX will lead to a better understanding of the initiation and development of severe storms in an area of the country that's particularly affected by them," says Chungu Lu, program director in NSF's Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences.

"If we can move 'early warnings' even sooner through the results of MPEX, it will lead to safer skies for air travelers and safer situations on the ground as well."

The project will include early morning flights with the NSF/NCAR Gulfstream V aircraft to sample the pre-storm atmosphere across Colorado and nearby states.

The Gulfstream V can cruise at 40,000 feet for up to six hours, which will enable researchers to thoroughly canvass the entire region where triggers for severe weather might be lurking.

MPEX will also include afternoon launches of weather balloons carrying instrument packages called radiosondes, which will profile conditions around thunderstorms as they develop and move east across the Great Plains.

Filling the same-day gap

Severe weather warnings from the National Weather Service give people up to an hour's notice for tornadoes and other threats on a county-by-county basis. A key goal of MPEX is to help improve the forecasts that fall between two types of longer-range alerts:
convective outlooks, which highlight the risk of severe weather up to eight days in advance across large parts of the country;
tornado and severe thunderstorm watches, which are issued up to eight hours in advance for state-sized areas.

Same-day forecasts often note the likelihood of severe storms, but they do not usually specify where and when the storms will develop.

MPEX will help determine whether more detailed observations and simulations could lead to more specific forecasts of storm location and behavior as much as a day in advance.

Advanced forecast models can now simulate the weather using data at points packed as closely as about a half-mile from each other. This allows showers and thunderstorms (known as "convection") to be explicitly depicted. But the newer models still struggle to reliably map out storm behavior beyond about six hours in advance.

Scientists believe this may be largely because the models need more detail on upper-level features, such as pockets of strong wind or dry air, located several miles above ground level.

As these features move into the Great Plains, they can be critical for triggering or suppressing severe storms. However, weather satellites may not see these features, and they often go undetected by limited surface and upper-air networks across the Rocky Mountain states.

"The structure of the atmosphere two to six miles above sea level is incredibly important," Weisman says. "This appears to be where the biggest forecast errors develop, so we need to collect more data at these heights."

In the sky and on the ground

To get around the data roadblock, MPEX will send the Gulfstream V from its base at the Rocky Mountain Metropolitan Airport in Broomfield on missions that will start as early as 3 a.m.

The Gulfstream V will sample jet-stream winds, upper-level temperatures, and other features across Colorado and nearby states.

The aircraft will use a microwave-based temperature sensor to profile horizontal temperature contrasts miles above the region.

At pre-specified locations, the Gulfstream V will also use parachute-borne minisondes--compact instrument packages, similar to the 200-plus radiosondes used every day across the nation--to gather extra detail between flight level and ground level.

The minisondes will provide information on temperature, moisture, and winds four times each second.

"The Gulfstream V is perfect for this kind of study," says NCAR project manager Pavel Romashkin, who will oversee MPEX aircraft operations. "The G-V is one of very few aircraft in weather research that can sample the atmosphere near the top of important features for a number of hours."

MPEX will also gather data with three radiosonde launch units operated by Purdue and NSSL in vehicles that will maneuver around late-day thunderstorms.

The goal is to find out how well the extra data can help predict local and regional weather conditions into the next day, as well as to assess how the thunderstorms interact with the atmosphere that surrounds and supports them.

"We know that even isolated, short-lived thunderstorms influence their environment," says Robert "Jeff" Trapp of Purdue, an MPEX principal investigator.

"The MPEX data will allow us to quantify these influences and examine how well they are represented in computer forecast models. This information can then be used to help improve weather forecasts."

Testing the value of enhanced observations

With the help of improvements in computing power and scientific understanding, forecast models can depict weather in far more detail than just a few years ago.

On each day of operations (about 15 in all during the project), MPEX will produce an ensemble of up to 30 forecasts using the NCAR-based research version of the multiagency Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-ARW).

Along with data from the Gulfstream V flights, each WRF-ARW ensemble member will use a slightly different characterization of early-morning weather conditions in order to allow for the uncertainty inherent in those measurements.

Forecasters can then issue forecasts with greater or lesser confidence based on how the ensemble forecasts agree or disagree.

The MPEX team will also evaluate how much the Gulfstream V data improve forecasts in two other modeling systems, both of which are updated each hour.

The complex process of incorporating observed data into the MPEX simulations will be handled by NCAR's Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Studies have shown that major forecast improvements are possible when the right kinds of data are collected and assimilated into forecast models.

Scientists hope the results from MPEX will help advance this process, which could improve predictions of severe thunderstorms as well as other types of high-impact weather where better forecasts in the six- to 24-hour period could help people and communities better prepare.

-NSF-

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